Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
United States
● President Trump is expected to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, with an announcement planned for Friday.
● Uncertainty around Jerome Powell’s future remains, as a Justice Department investigation into the Fed’s headquarters renovation complicates board succession decisions.
● The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% for the first time since July, signaling comfort with pausing rate cuts after three consecutive reductions.
● Fed officials cited stronger growth and early signs of labor-market stabilization as reasons to stay on hold, with two governors dissenting in favor of a cut.
● U.S. companies continued large-scale layoffs as they reverse pandemic-era hiring. Amazon cut 16,000 corporate roles, while UPS plans to cut 30,000 jobs.
● U.S.-based employers announced 1.2 million job cuts in 2025, the highest since 2020, led by tech and warehousing sectors.
● Factory orders rose 2.7% in November to $621.6 billion, pointing to firmer demand in manufacturing.
● Weekly jobless claims eased slightly to 209,000, while continuing claims fell to 1.83 million, reinforcing signs of labor-market stabilization.
● Consumer confidence fell to a 12-year low in January, reflecting broad concerns about prices and inflation across income groups.
Canada
● The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% for a second meeting, citing heightened uncertainty from U.S. trade policy and geopolitical risks.
● Officials said the current rate remains appropriate to support growth and keep inflation near the 2% target, but offered no guidance on the timing of future moves.
Eurozone
● Eurozone business confidence jumped in January, reaching its highest level since early 2023 and beating expectations.
● Employment expectations weakened, suggesting a looser labor market and slower wage growth ahead.
Germany
● Consumer sentiment improved in February, driven by better income and economic expectations and a higher willingness to spend.
● Despite the improvement, the desire to save remains high and the outlook fragile due to geopolitical risks.
● Business sentiment stalled in January, with the Ifo index unchanged as gains in manufacturing and construction were offset by weaker services confidence.
Spain
● Unemployment fell to 9.93% in late 2025, the first drop below 10% since 2008.
● Job growth was led by the services sector and supports a 2.9% GDP growth outlook for 2025.
Sweden
● Sweden’s central bank held its key rate at 1.75% and said policy is likely to remain unchanged for some time.
United Kingdom
● The property market recovered after budget-related volatility, but price growth remains modest.
● House prices rose 1.2% last year, below the 1.9% increase seen in 2024.
● The number of homes for sale rose 6% year over year, the highest level in eight years.
Japan
● Bank of Japan officials expressed growing concern about yen weakness and its impact on inflation, especially import prices.
● The yen recently approached 160 per dollar, prompting vigilance for potential intervention.
● After raising rates to 0.75% in December, some policymakers said rates may still be too low relative to inflation.
Singapore
● Singapore’s central bank held policy steady while raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 1.0%–2.0%, up from 0.5%–1.5%.
Brazil
● Brazil’s central bank kept its benchmark rate at 15% but signaled it could begin cutting as early as March.
● Inflation ran at 4.5% in mid-January, above the 3% target, while GDP grew 1.8% in the third quarter of 2025.
South Africa
● The South African Reserve Bank held its main rate at 6.75%, balancing stable inflation, low oil prices and a stronger rand.
● The rand has gained about 17% against the dollar over the past year, helping offset global uncertainty.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
● The CHF/TRY is up more than 3.40%.
● The CHF/HKD is up more than 3%.
● The AUD/USD is up more than 2.40%.
● The NZD/USD is up more than 2.20%.
● The JPY/EUR and the CHF/EUR are more than 1.40%.
● The TRY/JPY is down more than 3.40%.
● The USD/JPY is down more than 2.85%.
● The USD/CHF is down more than 2.60%.
Commodities
● Gold prices surged above $5,500.
● Silver prices hit the $120 mark.
● Copper prices shattered previous records, peaking above $14,000 per metric ton.
● Orange Juices prices are up for the 5th week in a row.
● Diesel prices are up for the 4th week in a row.
● Brent prices are up 4.50%.
● Platinum prices are down more than 11%.
Indices
● The BIST 100 is up more than 8%.
● The Bovespa index is up more than 6.50%.
● The KOSPI index is up more than 5.40%.
● The DAX 40 index is down more than 2.25%.
● The CAC 40 index is down more than 1.10%.
Shares
Tops
● Raizen SA Non-Cum Perp:+30%
● Seagate Technology: +27.59%
● Royal Caribbean Cruises: +22.89%
● Meta Platforms: +17.31%
● Metlen Energy & Metals: +14.70%
● Banco Brasil: +13.33%
● Western Digital: +12.85%
● Southwest Airlines: +12.48%
● Texas Instrument: +10.98%
Flops
● Humana: -27.39%
● United Rentals: -17.14%
● Axon Enterprise: -16.87%
● UnitedHealth: -15.81%
● SAP: -14.04%
● Coinbase Global: -12.84%
● Strategy: -12.54%
● RELX: -11.40%
● Burberry: -10.08%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 02 February
● 01:45 AM - Chinese - RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (January)
○ Previous: 50.1
○ Forecast: 50.5
● 08:15 AM - Spanish - HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)
○ Previous: 49.6
○ Forecast: 49.8
● 02:30 PM - Canadian - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)
○ Previous: 48.6
○ Forecast: 48.9
● 03:00 PM - American - ISM Manufacturing PMI (January)
○ Previous: 47.9
○ Forecast: 48.2
Tuesday 03 February
● 03:30 AM - Australian - RBA Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 3.6%
○ Forecast: 3.85%
● 07:45 AM - French - Inflation Rate YoY Prel (January)
○ Previous: 0.8%
○ Forecast: 0.8%
● 03:00 PM - American - JOLTs Job Openings (December)
○ Previous: 7.146M
○ Forecast: 7.0M
Wednesday 04 February
● 01:45 AM - Chinese - RatingDog Services PMI (January)
○ Previous: 52.0
○ Forecast: 51.5
● 08:15 AM - Spanish - HCOB Services PMI (January)
○ Previous: 57.1
○ Forecast: 57.2
● 10:00 AM - European - Inflation Rate YoY Flash (January)
○ Previous: 1.9%
○ Forecast: 2.0%
● 03:00 PM - American - ISM Services PMI (January)
○ Previous: 54.4
○ Forecast: 54.3
Thursday 05 February
● 12:30 AM - Australian - Balance of Trade (December)
○ Previous: A$2.936B
○ Forecast: A$ 4.9B
● 09:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Construction PMI (January)
○ Previous: 40.1
○ Forecast: 42.5
● 12:00 PM - UK - BoE Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 3.75%
○ Forecast: 3.75%
● 01:15 PM - European - Deposit Facility Rate
○ Previous: 2%
○ Forecast: 2%
● 01:15 PM - European - ECB Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 2.15%
○ Forecast: 2.15%
● 01:45 PM - European - ECB Press Conference
Friday 06 February
● 07:00 AM - German - Balance of Trade (December)
○ Previous: €13.1B
○ Forecast: €14.0B
● 01:30 PM - Canadian - Unemployment Rate (January)
○ Previous: 6.8%
○ Forecast: 6.8%
● 01:30 PM - American - Non Farm Payrolls (January)
○ Previous: 50.0K
○ Forecast: 40.0K
● 01:30 PM - American - Unemployment Rate (January)
○ Previous: 4.4%
○ Forecast: 4.5%
● 03:00 PM - Canadian - Ivey PMI s.a (January)
○ Previous: 51.9
○ Forecast: 51.5
● 03:00 PM - American - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (February)
○ Previous: 56.4
○ Forecast: 53
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Monday 02 February
● Intesa Sanpaolo
● Tyson Foods
● Mizuho Financial
● Julius Baer
● WALT DISNEY
Tuesday 03 February
● Mondelez
● Amgen
● PFIZER
● Electronic Arts
● Super Micro Computer Inc
● Chipotle Mexican Grill
● Merck
● Marathon Petroleum
● AMD
● Pepsico
● PayPal
● Publicis Groupe
Wednesday 04 February
● Alphabet
● Abbvie
● UBS Group
● Infineon Technologies
● Mitsubishi UFJ Financial ADR
● Cognizant Technology Solutions
● Uber Technologies
● Credit Agricole
● Qualcomm
● McKesson
● GLAXOSMITHKLINE
● Aurora Cannabis
● Novo Nordisk
● Eli Lilly & Co
● Novartis
● Banco Santander
● Arm Holdings
Thursday 05 February
● Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria
● SHELL
● CMS Energy
● ConocoPhillips
● Fortinet
● Kellogg Company
● Sony
● VINCI
● BNP Paribas
● AMAZON
Friday 06 February
● Philip Morris
● Banco de Sabadell
● Toyota Motor
● Canopy Growth
● BIOGEN
● GLE
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of January 30 2026
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